Hillary's In!

Perhaps the worst kept secret on the planet was finally made official on Sunday; Hillary Clinton is a candidate for President in 2016.

It's hard to imagine what else can be written about Clinton after a long public career that has already cemented her place in history. There will be many questions about her campaign going forward, first among them whether she has learned from the mistakes she made in 2008. Based upon the video announcing her candidacy, the answer seems to be yes; a small-scale bus tour from New York to Iowa where she stumbled badly in 2008. But other questions loom as well:


1) Her health. In December 2012, then-Secretary of State Clinton was hospitalized with a blood clot on her brain. All indications are that she is fine and has no lingering effects, but everyone will be watching.

2) Her age. Ronald Reagan's age was an issue throughout his presidency, assuming office at the age of 69. Hillary is currently 67. Being president ages you quickly, and the stresses of the job seem to increasingly demand a bit more youth and vigor. The last three presidents have all been under 50yrs old when they assumed office.

2.1) I suppose a related point here is whether ageism will be added to the sexism that swirled around her 2008 candidacy.

3) What's new? Decades of public life and a record that has been scrutinized to death might make it hard to re-invent herself in 2016 as something fresh and appealing to voters.

3.1) How will she position herself relative to 8yrs of Obama and the large role she played in it. 

4) Will she be able to connect with the average Joe? Bill Clinton had an uncanny ability to connect with people at every level of the socioeconomic scale. Hillary's evident skills as a policy wonk have not translated easily into human connections on the campaign trail.

5) Will she be pulled to the left by the likes of Senator Elizabeth Warren? Judging from her announcement video, the answer there is that she is already pre-empting that pressure by going there.

6) To what extent will the uproar over her e-mail practices as Secretary of State dog her in the months ahead? As the Clintons know too well, small-time sleaze can sow plenty of seeds of doubt. The long-running Whitewater investigation during the Clinton Presidency was small beer, but ultimately resulted in President Clinton's impeachment by the House of Representatives. Oh, and I guess we need to acknowledge the Monica Lewinsky scandal that was uncovered as well. Sleaze indeed.

6.1) Will the e-mail business simply fuel doubts among voters that the Clintons are always hiding things. There is something about the GOP and the Clintons that parallels red capes in front of a bull. The GOP has already begun waving a red cape at supporters.

7) Who else might emerge on the Democratic side to challenge Clinton? Some think Elizabeth Warren ought to enter just to make a point. However, there may yet be others. Remember that in 2008, Hillary Clinton's candidacy seemed inevitable until the Jr. Senator from Illinois jumped in the race..... Recall too that Bill Clinton's own path to the White House began as a little known underdog from a small southern state.

8) The GOP. At the moment, only Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio have officially entered the race for the Republicans. For the last several election cycles, Republicans have been engaged in a kind of internecine warfare that threatens to destroy the party. My bet is that Jeb Bush will emerge as the consensus favorite for the GOP assuming he puts his name in the ring. However, it will not be an easy ride for him. The GOP primary process in 2016 will be a brutal affair in which centrist candidates are savaged (remember Mitt Romney in 2008 and 2012). I'm not confident that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie can survive that. I have more confidence Jeb Bush could.

It's early days, but at the moment, my money is on another Bush or Clinton being in the White House in January 2017!

Stay tuned. The Super Bowl of Politics is already underway,........ nearly 600 days before election day.