U.S. Trade Politics: Seen This Movie Before

Those of you who follow U.S. trade policy know how ugly things can sometimes get. In March of last year, I wrote a lengthy post about the conversion of Barack Obama from staunch opponent of trade liberalization to someone that had had some kind of epiphany and been reborn as a proponent of free trade (see link here).

In that post, I also foreshadowed a debate over Trade Promotion Authority that is now upon us. The U.S. Senate is poised to debate, and probably pass, a TPA bill in early may that would delegate negotiating authority to the President to complete two signature trade initiatives; the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). For those of you unfamiliar with how TPA actually works, I will here shamelessly plug a journal article on the subject I wrote for Diplomatic History in 2012 (I hope Oxford Journals will forgive me for posting it). I still think it's one of the better pieces I've ever written.... Once out of the Senate, a version of the TPA legislation will have to also pass the House. Regardless of the final outcome, the TPA will reveal the deep divisions in both parties over trade (link).

What's amazing is how the debates over trade policy in the United States repeatedly descend to the some of the lowest forms of populist rhetoric. The TPA debate is already part of the 2016 Presidential election campaign as candidates, declared or otherwise, are asked to go on the record regarding their support for TPA. Depending on which way the wind happens to be blowing that day, candidates will declare themselves for or against (See story). What's more troublesome is how readily some of these candidates are willing to pander to anti-trade opponents. These days, it is far safer politically to be against trade liberalization than for it. It's also intellectually lazier! It's far easier to turn to the xenophobia of blaming foreigners for labor market woes than it is to make a more sophisticated case for trade; a topic I also dealt with in my post from a year ago.

As a reminder of the kind of simplistic nonsense that gets peddled about trade liberalization, I thought I'd post here a video that I like to show my students every fall. It's not without flaws, but it makes a strong point about the politics of trade liberalization (it happens to be funny too). The video features clips from the 2008 presidential campaign. As you watch the debate over TPA unfold in the weeks ahead, you might note how often we see more of the same....

Hillary's In!

Perhaps the worst kept secret on the planet was finally made official on Sunday; Hillary Clinton is a candidate for President in 2016.

It's hard to imagine what else can be written about Clinton after a long public career that has already cemented her place in history. There will be many questions about her campaign going forward, first among them whether she has learned from the mistakes she made in 2008. Based upon the video announcing her candidacy, the answer seems to be yes; a small-scale bus tour from New York to Iowa where she stumbled badly in 2008. But other questions loom as well:

Obama at the Summit of the Americas..... Bravo!

 I have to throw a bone to the president for his performance this past weekend at the Summit of the Americas in Panama City, Panama.

A quick scroll through the posts on this blog will show that I have not been especially complementary of Obama's foreign policy. In November of last year, I suggested that Obama's foreign policy suffered from Carter Syndrome. I have also worried about the perfect storm of foreign policy problems that seemed poised to overwhelm the last years of Obama's presidency. I've been much less critical of Obama's handling of environmental policy, particularly where the controversial Keystone XL pipeline is concerned. One can certainly levy the critique that Obama has failed to live up to expectations on issues like immigration and the environment, but I think that criticism needs to be measured against the level of opposition he's faced and his evident determination to tackle climate change in the time he has left. I've also expressed considerable sympathy for the challenges Obama (or any president) faces in being the leader of the most what remains the "indispensable country."

But this past weekend, at least, I began to think about how I'll miss his combativeness and ability to speak and think extemporaneously.