Black Swans and Presidential Campaigns

Whoa! Where do I begin? The coronavirus has upended everything. Just a month ago, I predicted Donald Trump would ride a booming U.S. economy to reelection. I suppose that is something of a caveat that I can now take to argue for exactly the opposite.


I think Donald Trump's presidency ended on Wednesday March 11, the night of his nationally televised address from the Oval Office aimed at calming the nation's growing fears over coronavirus. It was a total disaster, a debacle he might have been self-aware enough about to have understood.

Trump is rumoured to be a germaphobe. He should be since the coronavirus has fatally infected his Presidency. The President's cavalier mixture of dismissal, incompetence, and blame-shifting (China and Europe) in all of this is not what the country needs. Indeed, three and a half years of near continuous fabrications, lies, and distortions are now starting to catch up to him at exactly the moment when public trust in institutions and what we are being told by officials is most important. Some might counter that this is the sort of event that would challenge any president's capacities.

Sure. But I've made the case to my students that the Chinese reaction to the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan represented a significant, if not existential, challenge to the state's legitimacy. Indeed, it was a huge challenge for Beijing, one they seem to be emerging from. I'm not sure Donald Trump is going to be so lucky.

Tellingly, financial markets are rendering their judgement on the President's performance with their daily declines in reaction to the Administration's actions. With each passing day, Trump's response to the coronavirus pandemic is undermining his main case for re-election this fall; the economy. The precise scale of the impact of all this on economic activity has not come fully into view, but will not be a blip that reverses itself by the time voters go to the polls in November and render their own judgements on the President's performance.

The coronavirus is not some abstract bit of politics that can be spun in partisan fashion on FoxNews or MSNBC-- although Fox has walked a fine line in perpetrating the view that the whole thing might be a Chinese or Democratic plot to overturn the 2016 election results. Pandemics cut across all of that and don't wear partisan labels.


In Joe We Trust?

There's also been an incredible reversal in Democratic Party politics in the last month. Joe Biden was essentially left for dead after finishing 5th in the New Hampshire Primary; 5th, not even 10% of the vote, and therefore no delegates. Biden also had no money!!!! Yet, as the obituaries were being written, centrists in the Democratic Party ("establishment"?) started to think twice about where they were headed and whether it was the right direction to be going in a contest against Trump.

To nearly everyone's shock, Joe Biden pulled off a double digit victory in South Carolina on February 29, largely thanks to overwhelming support from African American voters in that state. The crushing victory for Biden immediately reset the table. Biden went on to Super Tuesday and won in places like Texas where he hadn't really competed for lack of funds. He emerged the clear victor that night, and with a pledged delegate lead over his nearest rival, Bernie Sanders, that has looked insurmountable ever since.

It is hard to overstate just how profound a reversal this has been for Biden! For the very first time, he and his campaign look invigorated and poised to take on Trump through the remainder of the year. Biden further capitalized on his electoral momentum to undercut Trump by cleverly staging his own "presidential-esq" news conference detailing how he'd handle the coronavirus pandemic.

Cynicism about Biden's opportunism is fair, but it was a brilliant move that clearly contrasted what the former Vice-President would do were he in office with the chaotic response of the current occupant.


We are down to two candidates in the Democratic field, but there are only a few questions outstanding:

Handshake for the Times

1) When does Bernie admit that it's over and get out? Unlike what he did in 2016, I hope it is soon. His legacy of reshaping the Democratic Party agenda is secure. There's no need to fight for anything other than making sure some of his agenda is enshrined in the Party platform at the Convention in Milwaukee this summer. You could see some early signalling about Bernie's intentions in last night's Democratic debate on CNN. Bernie was not quite as aggressive as I thought someone in a desperate situation ought to have been. To me, that signals a truce is on the horizon.

2) What does Biden do to mend fences and get unhappy Bernie supporters to join forces for the larger good? You could see a bit of this last night in last night's debate as well.

3) Biden's Vice Presidential Pick. In last night's debate, Biden made important news. He committed to picking a woman to be his vice-presidential running mate. There is a solid list of contenders; Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar among former rivals. But there are also several possibilities among state governors. Whom ever Biden picks, the contrast with the Trump-Pence ticket will be stark.

There are likely to be more twists and turns between now and November. The increasingly draconian measures being implemented around the world, including in the United States, to deal with all of this have huge implications for voting this fall. I confess to being nervous about them all.

As they unfold, my specific stage of social-distancing, self-isolation, or lock-down, will give me ample time to contribute more frequently to this blog space. Stay tuned.