Requiem for the North American Idea

There are many things about the Trump Presidency that keep me awake at night. After Trump was elected, I was among those who turned to James Madison and the Federalist Nos. 10 and 51 for solace. I was certain the same institutional design that intentionally put so many barriers in the way of "getting things done" would constrain Trump's worst (but then not fully appreciated) excesses. My alarm at the damage being done grows by the day. In fact, as great as Madison's design is, I'm not sure it was designed to constrain this kind of aberrational president, nor the sustained assault on the core institutions of American democracy.

I openly wonder who is going to put the toothpaste back in the tube? Can it be put back? Trump didn't create this mess so much as he's a manifestation of a host of problems that have been simmering for a long time. Indeed, one of the most insightful comments I read during all of the memorials around Sen. John McCain's death is that in selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate in 2008, he played a significant role in laying the foundation of today's populist assault on the truth in the GOP

Rock Paper Scissors for Trade

To Trade or Not to Trade?

Of course, one of my interests is the global trading system and my alarm at the damage being done here is also acute. The amount of damage Trump has done to America's leadership credibility in global trade is going to take a very long time to repair. It's unclear to me that it can be repaired since, in my view, Trump has arrived at the most inopportune moment for resolving important problems within. Smarter, more thoughtful voices were already calling for significant changes to how the global trading system's rules were written. Of note here, the basis for the long-stalled Doha Round of the WTO launched in late 2001 was development; hence the name Doha Development Round. Indeed, issues important to the developing world were to be the center-piece of the Round, starting with agriculture. We know what has happened there.

Much as I turned to Madison to ease my concerns about the erosion of American political institutions during Trump's reign, I similarly sought solace in the rules of the global trading regime. "We'll be able to ride this out," I thought. Moreover, "we've seen this movie before." Indeed, xenophobia in the hands of anti-trade populists has been the weapon of choice for centuries. Yet, I reasoned that rules largely designed and underwritten by U.S. leadership would, even in the face of nonsense from Trump, not quickly be tossed aside.  It was in America's interests to stick to the rules. Not only had the United States been a financial beneficiary of open, rules-based trade, the political prestige and leadership benefits of being the "indispensable" country for that system would surely appeal to Trump's better senses (or at least his ego).

Nope.